> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.cro.trade/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.cro.trade/prediction-markets/predict.md).

# Predict

Shares in the outcome of a real-world event — sport, crypto, the economy, politics. The **Predict** tab opens them.

> Eligibility and availability depend on where you are — see [Privacy & Terms](/legal/privacy-and-terms.md).

## How a prediction market works

A market has outcomes you can buy shares in, most often **YES** and **NO**, and a share's price *is* its probability: YES at $0.62 means the market puts the chance at about 62%.

If your outcome wins, each share is worth **$1**. If it loses, **$0**. So your payout is your share count times a dollar, and your profit is that minus what you paid.

You don't have to wait for the result. Shares can be sold back into the market at the going price, which is usually how a position ends — as with any order book, that depends on there being a bid for them.

## Categories

**Trending** collects the highest-volume markets across everything. **Economy** covers Fed rates, inflation, GDP, trade and housing. **Politics** covers elections and political events. **Sports** is everything but soccer — see [Sports & Live Scores](/prediction-markets/sports.md).

**Crypto** and **Football** each get a layout of their own.

Search by name, and sort by trending, volume, liquidity, newest or ending soon.

### Football

Football here means soccer, and it sits outside Sports because it's most of the volume. Three tabs: **Matches** (live first, then upcoming by kick-off), **Questions** (season-long and prop markets by volume), and **Ended** (the last few days).

### Crypto

Crypto markets are grouped by how long they run, so a five-minute "Up or Down" doesn't get buried under a year-end price target. Filter to **All**, **5 Min**, **15 Min**, **1 Hour**, **4 Hours**, **Daily**, **Weekly**, **Monthly**, **Yearly**, **Pre-Market** or **ETF**.

## Placing a trade

Open a market for its outcomes, prices, order book and recent activity. Pick your outcome — YES or NO, or Home / Draw / Away on a match — then **Market** to buy at the best available price now, or **Limit** to name your price and wait.

Enter an amount in USD and the panel works out the shares you get, what they cost, and your maximum payout if you're right. Swipe to confirm on mobile, submit on desktop. Minimum order is **$1**.

## Positions

Each position shows its current value, unrealised P\&L and maximum payout.

**Close** sells back to the market at whatever it's worth now, which may be more or less than you paid. **Redeem** applies once a market has resolved your way and turns each winning share into $1, credited to your Predict balance. Losing shares are worth nothing and need no action.

## Funding

Predict settles in **USDC**. Deposit from:

* **Arbitrum USDC**, the most direct route
* **Cronos**, in CRO or USDC, converted for you
* **Another chain**: Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Polygon or Avalanche, described in [Adding USDC from another chain](/portfolio-and-rewards/wallet.md#adding-usdc-from-another-chain)
* **Your Perps balance**, moved over in-app

Withdrawals go to **Cronos**, **Arbitrum**, **Base**, **Polygon**, **HyperEVM**, **Avalanche** or **Ethereum**. Withdrawals to Ethereum carry a network fee, shown before you confirm. You can also move money between Perps and Predict with an [internal transfer](/perpetuals/perps.md#transfers-between-perps-and-predict).

## Price alerts

Set an alert on a market and you'll be pushed a notification when it crosses your target probability. See [Notifications](/account-and-settings/notifications.md).